A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
